As if the incompetence of the Trump administration weren’t glaring enough, Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor, decided to make it clear for those at the back. Former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg called it “the highest level of fuckup imaginable.” A lesson for us all, then. Whenever you’re next making a group chat to discuss Middle East war plans with the other senior members of cabinet, just remember to double check that you haven’t accidentally added a journalist.
On Monday, Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic ran the following headline: The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans. And that pretty much sums it up. Two weeks ago, Waltz mistakenly added Goldberg to a group chat on commercial encrypted messaging service Signal, called “Houthi PC small group.” The group included (because I presume it surely cannot still exist) Vice President JD Vance, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and US Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff. In the group chat they discussed strikes in Yemen against Iran-backed Islamist terrorist Houthi rebels, who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea since the outset of the Israel-Gaza War threatening European international trade. Per Goldberg, this included clearly highly classified information detailing timings, weapons, and targets of imminent future attacks, provided by Hegseth.
So what does the administration do. Downplay, attack, and outright lie. Trump, in his usual fashion of ‘nothing is my fault’, entertained that he knew nothing about the leak, for far longer than a president should not know about such an incident, before playing it off as a “glitch” in an otherwise successful three months of success. The Democrats will be rubbing their hands together if the administration can make this into a quarterly thing! Waltz, far more to blame (indeed he took responsibility for Goldberg’s addition to the group), turned the tables on Goldberg, attacking him as a “loser” and “scum”, and like Trump, disparaged The Atlantic as failing (it is not). But most significantly, Gabbard and Ratcliffe, who on Tuesday were to testify before the House intelligence committee on general matters of international security issues, both lied that no classified information had been shared with the group, perjuring themselves.
Because they know that it’s not just the accidental addition of Goldberg for which they are in the wrong, but what his report uncovers, that the most senior national security officials in the country think it safe and reasonable to use Signal to share classified information, an app not permitted by the government for such action. Even then, the most worrying part, and the part that may not come fully to light (unless Kash Patel, FBI director, changes his mind and decides to open an investigation) is the extent to which private phones were being used for the transmission of this information. Signal itself is encrypted and would be hard to compromise – private phones, not so much. To think, Witkoff was in Moscow and Rubio was in the Middle East, though Witkoff maintains he had only a secure device with him, as is required. Relatively moderate Republican congressman and brigadier general Don Bacon told CNN: “I will guarantee you, 99.99 percent with confidence, Russia and China are monitoring those two phones … They intentionally put highly classified information on an unclassified device. I would have lost my security clearance in the Air Force for this and for a lot less.”
So, what did Goldberg do? He released the messages in their entirety of course! Assured by the Director of National Intelligence’s sworn testimony no less, the content of the messages, which he had screenshotted, was not classified. And given that the details were largely operational in nature, whilst their leak in advance would significantly endanger American pilots in Yemen, their subsequent release would have little effect. Of course, clearly the content is clearly classified, but Goldberg has his defence if/when the administration comes after him. Here are Hegseth’s most damning messages, preceding the attack by two hours:

“1215et: F-18s LAUNCH (1st strike package)
“1345: ‘Trigger Based’ F-18 1st Strike Window Starts (Target Terrorist is @ his Known Location so SHOULD BE ON TIME – also, Strike Drones Launch (MQ-9s)
“1410: More F-18s LAUNCH (2nd strike package)
“1415: Strike Drones on Target (THIS IS WHEN THE FIRST BOMBS WILL DEFINITELY DROP, pending earlier ‘Trigger Based’ targets)
“1536 F-18 2nd Strike Starts – also, first sea-based Tomahawks launched.
“MORE TO FOLLOW (per timeline)
“We are currently clean on OPSEC [operational security (ironic)]
“Godspeed to our Warriors.”

This week, it was also reported that Waltz’s contacts list of other officials, lobbyists, and journalists on Venmo is public, that, per Der Spiegel, email addresses, numbers, and some passwords of some Trump administration officials can be found among recent hacked data dumps accessible online, and that Hegseth has brought his wife, who does not have a sufficient (or likely any) security clearance, to highest level intelligence talks on at least two occasions.
Many Democrats have excoriated the administration and some Republicans, including senior senators, have been notable critical of the security breach and have called for investigations. Mississippi senator Roger Wicker, chair of the armed services committee, along with the Democrat ranking member have called for an investigation by the defence department’s inspector general. (It is worth noting however, that the defence department currently has only an acting inspector general after Trump’s illegal midnight cull of inspectors general, who head oversight of federal departments.) Many lawmakers have noted that any other US citizen would have been arrested and charged under the Espionage Act by now, for less.
But the chat’s damaging content doesn’t just include the classified information. Vance along with Hegseth voice their mutual disdain for European “freeloading”, with Vance going so far as to express opposition to the strikes on account of their cost, with far less benefit to the US than Europe. He also disagreed with Trump’s messaging, in his view too unclear and inconsistent; he said:

“I think we are making a mistake … 3 percent of US trade runs through the suez. 40 percent of European trade does. There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to do this is, as POTUS said, to send a message. … I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now.”

Because, when the strongest reason to initiate a strike which Yemen reported killed 53 people, mostly civilians, is to send a message (and my interpretation is that he means a message to the American people and to European leaders, not to the Houthis), you go ahead with such an attack. Just as distasteful, but unmentioned in the current news, perhaps because its unsurprising from the Trump administration, is Waltz's reply to Ratcliffe’s text “A good start” with a fist, an American-flag, and a fire emoji. The appropriate response to the acknowledged death of non-combatants. They bankroll Israel’s genocide in Palestine; they deport of Venezuelans to a Salvadorian prison known for its human rights abuses; they arrest (abduct might be a better word) immigrant students on university campuses to supress their support for Gaza; they respond to Yemeni deaths with emojis. Are non-Americans not human to the administration? Americans should worry. If the administration gets its way, it will be up to them to decide who is and isn’t American.
But Republicans are worried. Just this week, in a special election, Republicans lost Pennsylvania State Senate District 36. Of course, special elections (this one triggered by the incumbent’s resignation for a better position as part of the team of Pennsylvania’s new Republican senator) come with many caveats, like low turnout, and voter apathy among the power holding party. But the 29.2% voter turnout is pretty high for a state-level US special election, and the scale of swing was significant. In 2018, Aument, the previous incumbent was elected with 66.4% of the vote during the anti-Trump blue wave, and in 2022 was elected unopposed. Just last year, the district voted for Trump by 15 percentage points, and the congressional district is rated R+15 by the Cook PVI. In Louisiana, on Saturday, state constitutional amendments pushed through to referendum by Republicans who enjoy supermajorities in both chambers of the state's legislature were overwhelmingly rejected. The 'No to All' campaign clearly made an impact, with all four vague and enabling amendments rejected with only a third of the vote for their adoption. And this in a state which voted for Trump by 22 percentage points.
On Tuesday, Floridians will go to the polls in FL-01 and FL-06 (rated R+19 and R+15 respectively) to fill the house seats left by the resignations of Matt Gaetz of Mike Waltz to fill cabinet positions (though only Waltz succeeded in getting there). Both won their seats in 2024 with 66% of the vote, with FL-06 slightly less Trumpy and FL-01 slightly more. Until a recent Musky foray into the race, Democrats had out-fundraised their respective Republican hopefuls ten-to-one, in a sign of a competitive race. Even a Democratic loss by a single digit margin would worry most Republican congresspeople and might be the most potent weapon against the Trump administration that the Democrats can find. Such close races might make some Republicans in far less safe districts rethink some controversial votes. It matters far less that Elon Musk endorses and bankrolls a primary challenger against you if the Republican candidate will lose either way. Perhaps some will rediscover a spine. Perhaps not. But the party is clearly rattled. In a house currently split 218-213 (220-215 at the last election) every extra member counts. As a result, Trump has withdrawn his nomination of Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN, unable to afford losing another Republican house member until the seat is filled. Stefanik was elected to NY-21 (rated R+8) in 2024 with 62% of the vote. We will see on Wednesday whether that puts her at risk. It is important to note, that NY-21 is safe Republican in a normal election, and talk of losses here are accounting for the skewness of special elections. Republican opposition may not materialise – we will have to see.
Also on Tuesday, Wisconsin will go to the polls to vote for a 10-year tenure on the state supreme court. Yes, you heard that right! The Wisconsin supreme court, like many state supreme courts, are elected, and whilst nominally non-partisan, everyone knows who the Democrat and Republican- I mean liberal and conservative candidates are. The partisan composition of the supreme court will be decided by this election, having been 4-3 in favour of the liberals before the election was triggered by a retirement, and they are expected to soon consider both a case on abortion law in the state, and a lawsuit demanding congressional redistricting. Wisconsin currently sends six Republicans and two Democrats to the House of Representatives, such a distribution down to a map purposefully and maliciously gerrymandered by REDMAP and forced through by the Republican state legislature in 2010, brazen and unabashed, that concentrates the swing state's Democratic support into just two seats rated D+19 and D+25. (Their state legislature's districts were struck down last year and had a sizable effect on election outcomes this year: in 2018, Democrats won 36 of 99 state assembly seats with 53% of the vote; in 2024, they won 45 seats with 49% of the vote.) The race is the most expensive supreme court race in American history, projected to surpass $100 million, and with Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate, funded largely by Elon Musk (whose support began shortly after Musk brought a lawsuit against a Wisconsin law which blocks a Tesla dealership in the state), Crawford, the liberal candidate, is running the race primarily as an anti-Elon referendum.
For now, fighting those house and court seats hard has got to be the Democrats’ greatest priority. And they should introduce articles of impeachment against Hegseth. Speaker Mike Johnson would never allow them to reach committee stage, but that wouldn’t stop Democrat representatives making noise and lots of it. The Republicans never stopped going on about Hilary Clinton’s emails after all. This is a whole nother league.

Israel resumed its bombing of Gaza last week killing hundreds in strikes without forewarning that shattered the ceasefire that had been in place for the month prior. It was the single deadliest day in Gaza since the first months of the war, increasing the reported death toll past 50,000. The attack has been widely condemned in the international community for reigniting the war without a clear legitimate goal, and in Israel for further endangering the remaining hostages, which number twenty-four, and jeopardising the return of the bodies of the other hostages still in Gaza, of which there are thirty-four.
Emboldened by Trump's Islamophobic rhetoric and espousal of policies of ethnic cleansing, Netanyahu contacted the US before resuming strikes on the Palestinian territory. The move has also been criticised as a cynical attempt by Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, to stay in power, with only a slim majority in the Knesset, Israel's unicameral legislature. Netanyahu has been on trial for fraud, breach of trust, and receiving bribes since 2020 alleged to have used his position as Minister of Communications for his benefit, promising regulation changes in exchange for more favourable news coverage from a media outlet on two occasions, among other offences. The war and his position and prime minister have largely provided him respite from the trial which now proceeds very slowly, though it is indeed ongoing.
Netanyahu's governing coalition has 67 seats of 120 in the assembly, and so he requires the support of the seven Otzma Yehudit (OY) party members. The furthest-right party in what is consider the furthest right government in Israel's history, OY, whose name means 'Jewish Power', runs on a platform of ultra-Zionist Kahanism, ultranationalism, anti-Arab racism, fascism, and Jewish supremacy. They have strong links to the Kach ('Thus') party, outlawed in 1994 under anti-racism and anti-terrorism laws. They would see all Arab Israeli citizens deemed not loyal to Israel (whatever that means) deported. An OY minister in Netanyahu's government was sacked in 2023 after suggesting the use of nuclear weapons was on the table in relation to the Gaza-Israel war. They have consistently advocated for the continued war in Gaza and will be pleased by Netanyahu's threats of annexation, that he has repeated in recent days, and by Trump's talk of mass deportations.
But neither is the Hamas government in Gaza in a comfortable position. Anti-Hamas protests restarted in northern Gaza this week, demanding an end to the war, and labelling Hamas "terrorists". And though the protests were eventually dispersed by plain-clothes Hamas operatives, they threaten to reignite protest across Gaza, which had mostly abated after it surged at the beginning of the war in October 2023. "People are tired," one protester said.

In a unanimous decision, the Supreme Court of Brazil has decided that there is sufficient evidence to proceed with trying Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's former president, over his attempted coup d'état following his narrow loss in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election.
In 2022, Lula da Silva's beat Bolsonaro by a close margin of 1.6 percentage points, and became the first man to win a third presidential term, and the first to defeat an incumbent president. Bolsonaro had repeatedly and baselessly alleged widespread election fraud and appealed to the supreme court to annul certain ballots cast using electronic voting machines, in a move which would see him win with 51% of the vote instead. But this subversion became far more serious with Bolsonaro and his accomplices planning to deny Lula's inauguration, arrest the top Supreme Federal Court justice Alexandre de Moraes and the President of the Federal Senate, shut down parliament, and dismantle the Superior Electoral Court to consolidate Bolsonaro's control. More recently, the police alleged an even more sinister plot named 'Green and Yellow Dagger', one which involved assassinating Lula and his running mate by poison and Moraes by shooting him. The police accused 37 individuals, including Bolsonaro and his running mate and former general Walter Bragga Netto, and on the 18th of February this year, 35 individuals were indicted by the country's attorney general. Those accused include many of Bolsonaro's ministers, many of whom are former senior military officers, including three generals and an admiral. The top court ruled that there was sufficient evidence for Bolsonaro and seven others to stand trial for the most serious charges relating to and including coup d'état. Bolsonaro of course professes his innocence.
He has two lifelines. The first is a pardon - this will require a president on his side, and Lula certainly isn't. However, with a general election next year, he will be hoping to help install a sympathetic candidate; his son, a well-known member of Brazil's lower house, has been touted as a possible successor.
While ultimately unsuccessful - despite their military calibre, they were unable to get the army onside - the transition of power from Bolsonaro to Lula was far from peaceful. On the 8th of January 2023, almost certainly inspired by the US' January 6th insurrection two years prior and fuelled by Bolsonaro's allegations of election fraud (sound familiar?), a mob numbering in the thousands descended on the Supreme Court, the National Congress, and the Presidential Palace in Brasília, hoping to elicit a 'military intervention' allowing for a Bolsonaro-lead coup. In the end, they were unsuccessful too, though around forty police officers were injured and millions of reals of damage was incurred, and Lula was forced to declare a state of emergency in the region before the attackers were detained or dispersed.
Meanwhile, in France, leader of the far-right National Rally in parliament and their presidential candidate Marine Le Pen awaits judgement on Monday on charges relating to alleged embezzlement of funds from the EU. If found guilty, she could be barred from seeking elected office for five years, a move which would likely scupper any future presidential ambitions and would certainly dash any chances at the next election in 2027. She is the only politician seen as a serious presidential candidate for the party, whose members have expressed frustration over the lack of acknowledgement by the party of Le Pen's legal troubles, or of the possible succession battle if she can no longer run. If she is not acquitted, she will of course lodge an appeal, which will likely take years to make its way through the courts. The second question is then, if she is found guilty, will the five-year electoral ban start tomorrow, or once the appeals are exhausted, in which case, will such a ban be effected before the 2027 presidential election at all? The French President cannot be prosecuted while incumbent, though unlike in the US, ongoing trials cannot be disappeared in the same way, and would resume at the end of the term.
I will have more on this story tomorrow in the day.