24th March
The Standing Orders
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Trump Unveils New American Autocracy

At the start of the week, it became clearer still how the Trump administration intends to govern - above the law.
Last week, Trump signed a presidential proclamation declaring the deportation of Venezuelan migrants, members of the narcoterrorist Tren de Aragua gang, under the Alien Enemies of 1798. Under the act, the president is authorised to arrest and deport male citizens of an 'enemy country' over the age of fourteen. Trump alleges that the ongoing actions of the gang constitute an 'invasion' and as such they are subject to the act's jurisdiction. As is the case with almost all of his executive orders and similar acts, it was challenged in the courts. (This is not a particularly unusual event in isolation - executive power is frequently challenged by various organisations and even rival-party state attorneys general; the extent to which Trump's orders are challenged and such challenges ruled against the government is unprecedented.) Unsurprisingly, Judge James Boasberg, appointed by Bush Minor and elevated by Obama, placed an injunction on the deportations, while he decides the case brought against the government by the American Civil Liberties Union on behalf of 5 men detained.
But the flights went ahead. Despite the order from Boasberg that no plane should depart and any flight in progress should turn back, planes full of Venezuelan migrants landed in El Salvador, where they are currently detained in an enormous prison known for its human rights abuses and humiliating degrading treatment of inmates, often held without trial in the increasingly authoritarian country. Indeed Bukele, the Salvadorian president and self-proclaimed "world's coolest dictator" posted a propaganda video showing the deportees being manhandled off the US' planes and their hair being shaved, with the accompanying caption "Oopsie... too late." Note that the 260 (presumably) Venezuelan men have been deported without any due process - they are only alleged to be criminals, but the Trump administration has provided no evidence for this. It is very possible and has been alleged that the Trump administration has now deported men to a mega-prison in a third country known for allegations of torture of inmates on the basis of their nationality, and tattoos. It should be terrifying for every American.
Subsequently, the DOJ, now a partisan instrument for Trump's vengeance, and his handlers' racist ideologies, has been tying itself in knots trying to justify their flouting the order. Among other defences, they have claimed that the judge's order didn't count because it was verbal (wrong), the judge's jurisdiction ended as soon of the planes left US airspace (wrong), and that they aren't even able to tell the judge about the times the planes left for example because such information is classified (perhaps true, but precedent says they must still provide evidence that such information is of such high national security). Boasberg has issued strict deadlines and scathing rebuttals to the administration's defences. We will have to see how he proceeds further.
Rather more worryingly, Trump's underlings have spent the past week revelling in their ignoring Boasberg's order, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt saying "a single judge in a single city cannot direct the movements of an aircraft carrier," and extremist border tsar Tom Homan leaving nothing to be inferred, with the statement, "I don't care what the judges think." Trump emboldened by these statements, and Musk's similar post on Twitter, called for the impeachment of this "Radical Left Lunatic Judge", earning a rare rebuttal from Chief Justice John Roberts, who made clear that such proceedings were not and have never been an appropriate response to a disagreement in a judge's position. Perhaps he realises that if they can come for Boasberg, they can come for him. Trump may find the Supreme Court, which the administration is eager to frame as the only court that matters, reticent to a case brought against Boasberg's decision, his being well respected by members of the court, appointed by Roberts to senior judicial roles, and university roommate to Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. (Impeachment, brought forward a couple of days ago by some Trump's pet Republican representative, could theoretically pass the House of Representatives, if speaker Mike Johnson thinks it's worth the time spent on it in his already busy and divided house, but the senate would need a supermajority and hence bipartisan support to convict.)
In an attempt to detract from any blame, Trump claimed that the unannounced proclamation invoking the Act signed in the dead of night wasn't actually signed by him. Just earlier this week he falsely and baselessly claimed that the controversial pardons Biden issued at the end of his term were void, because Biden didn't know anything about their signing. Imagine if Biden had said something like Trump did. It would occupy the media coverage for more than a cycle and Republicans in the House would never shut up about it! Unsurprisingly, the White House quickly refuted the notion, and probably told Trump that that is the one thing he's not allowed to lie about.
Meanwhile Trump has continued his systematic revenge, revoking security clearances afforded Biden, Harris, Antony Blinken, former Republican Congresspeople and members of the House committee investigating the January 6 insurrection, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, and New York attorney general, Letitia James, who indicted him for fraud. But it's not just individuals: he also revoked security clearances for three law firms associated in some way with criminal proceedings against him, also denying them entry to federal buildings, like federal courthouses. So far, one has capitulated (though the extent to which Trump's win is actually a win is debatable, while another is fighting it in court with the help of another brave law firm willing to take on their case.
With executive opposition absent, Trump having fired employees in non-partisan roles he does not have the power to fire, legislative opposition dead and buried by the rubber-stamp Republican caucus, Democratic opposition unable to find a clear message with voters to rebuke him, and media opposition snuffed out by his attacks on the fourth estate, only judicial opposition remains to counter Trump's autocratic desires. Will they be able to stop him?
Carney Calls Snap Election in Canada
On Sunday, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney went to the Governor-General and requested parliament be dissolved for a snap election, a move expected to precede the Canadian parliament's previously planned return from prorogation on Monday. Being prime minister wouldn't be so easy when parliament is recalled and you don't have a seat in the house.
Carney, the Liberal's new leader, will be looking to ride the wave of his surging popularity into government, in an election which will be held very soon, on the 28th of April. Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives, will be desperately hoping to claim the top job, it having looked for the past year and a half so certain that he would. Meanwhile, the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois and the left-wing New Democratic Party will be hoping that dissatisfaction with both major parties help them, the former in Quebec, and the latter elsewhere. The Greens will want to retain their seats.
Whilst the campaign is only beginning, the polling has been painting quite the picture over the past couple of weeks. The Liberals, have surged nearly 20 percentage points to 39%, 8 percentage points coming from each of the Conservatives and the NDP, with 2 percentage points from BQ (about 8% of the Quebec vote).
As it stands, the Liberals, previously characterised by the unpopularity of their prime minister, Justin Trudeau, have found their feet again under Mark Carney, who was elected two weeks ago as Liberal leader in a landslide election. He emerged as a frontrunner among the candidates for the leadership for his firm patriotic position in the face of the trade war facing Canada as a result of Trump's economic aggression. As prime minister he immediately suspended the federal fuel charge, known as the carbon tax (though this confuses it with levies issued on big polluting businesses, an ambiguity Poilievre would be keen to exploit). Already one of the Conservatives' key lines of attack, until recently all anti-Trudeau, 'axe the tax' is rendered moot. He looks to run mainly on a strong united patriotic platform against the talk of Canadian annexation espoused by their neighbours to the south, and on calm competent handling of the economy. Carney's terms as Governor of the Banks of both Canada and England are testament to his ability on these matters and on Friday he held a meeting with Canada's provincial premiers to work towards a united economic policy, especially on response to tariffs. The premiers wanted to know what Carney would do for their constituents and Carney wanted to tell them. But it's worth remembering that the only election Carney has ever won is the Liberal leadership - he's never held elected office, and he's never campaigned for it. It will be a learning curve, that's for sure, though he will face no serious challenge in Nepean, a safe seat in Ottawa.
The Conservatives have been led by Pierre Poilievre for the last three years, and for the last year and a half looked set to claim a majority government, whenever the next election was held. Poilievre is the opposite of Carney, self-proclaimed "champion of a free market", he is firmly in the pocket of the very rich and of big business and knows only how to run a negative campaign. Criticised by all the other major parties for sowing division, especially by fuelling anti-immigrant rhetoric, the Conservatives have been effectively capitalising on Trudeau's lack of popularity. With Musk's endorsement and a "Canada First" platform (what does that remind you of?), he looks far less appealing to the Canadian population than he did before November. The Conservatives' current lines of attack include calling the prime minister "Sneaky Carney" alleging that the carbon tax's suspension is merely just a pause for the duration of the campaign as well as "Boots, not Suits" (Poilievre loves a rhyming three-word slogan) in an attempted attack on Carney's being part of the establishment. Nothing says member of the establishment like MP of 20-years. Hang on. In that time, Pierre Poilievre has introduced a grand total of 7 bills to parliament, only two in the past ten years. Of these, only two have got past the first reading, and only one passed. It is worth noting that there are many MPs with less to show for twenty years, and many with far far more. In the three years he's spent as party leader, he also seems to have forgotten to get a security clearance. Such a security clearance would be conveniently and automatically granted if he became prime minister. It's looking less and less likely.
But the Liberals aren't gaining support only from the Conservatives. A significant amount of their support is coming previous NDP voters. Could it be Carney again, winning back voters? Perhaps, but then again, critics on the left see Carney as nothing more than a red tory, a progressive, but a conservative. So shouldn't the NDP retain its appeal as the main left-wing party? Jagmeet Singh, their leader, and the first Sikh leader of any major North American political party, is neither particularly popular or unpopular, though as all NDP leaders must, he lives in the shadow of Jack Layton, who saw the NDP to 103 seats in parliament and the official opposition, and might have been prime minister at the next election in 2015, had he not died. Such a redefined political landscape looks unlikely for the NDP. It relied on the collapse of the Liberal party which looks unlikely, and of BQ. Particularly given Quebec's secularism (similar to that of France), Singh looks unlikely to find significant support in the province, given his overt religiosity; were he a teacher or policeman in Quebec for example, he would not be permitted to wear the turban that he sports. But ultimately, in a first-past-the-post system, sometimes you can be unpopular just because you're unpopular. In the face of the spectre of a Trumpy Conservative government, and an actual Trump administration, the Liberals sempiternal calls for unity on the left are resonating, and they are taking votes away from the NDP, and BQ to some extent, where the tactical vote against the Conservatives is suddenly the Liberals again.
BQ's nationalist policies don't have quite the same ring to them in the face of such unity, and perhaps that's why they are facing a declining seat number. However, they are very much still an important factor in Quebec, and are unlikely to find themselves decimated like they were in 2011, instead sitting at around a third of Quebec's seats, with hardliner support unlikely to shift, but without much support from those who would vote for them to oppose the incoming government on other matters that sovereignty.
The Greens will be looking to keep their two seats, perhaps claiming back the only other seat they've ever won. They will not seriously contend any other seat, especially with the Liberal support rebounded. On the other side of the spectrum, the hard-right populist People's Party looks to seriously contend no seats. Their leader, Maxime Bernier, who narrowly lost the 2017 Conservative Leadership election and subsequently quit the party, managed 5% of the national vote in 2021, but was comfortably beaten in the riding in which he ran. The right-ward drift of the Conservative party leaves him little room and his party is polling at 2%. Worth a mention, but no more.

Current 338Canada forecast: Liberals: 178 (+18) seats, Conservatives: 131 (+12) seats, BQ: 25 (-7) seats, NDP: 7 (-18) seats, Greens: 2 (-) seats (Change from previous election in brackets; 172 seats need for a majority.)
Democratic Backsliding in Serbia, Türkiye
On Wednesday, the Serbian prime minister finally tendered his resignation to the Serbian parliament in Belgrade, along with the resignation of the rest of the government amid ongoing protests against corruption and president Vučić's increasingly autocratic rule. In response, the president has said he will hold parliamentary elections if a government does not form in the next month, continuing to shift blame from his presidency for the Novi Sad railway station disaster, where a recently completed canopy collapsed and killed sixteen people, a number which increased this week as a teenager succumbed to injuries they sustained from the collapse. Protesters succeeded in obtaining the release of documents surrounding the building's construction, but they were so heavily redacted they have done effectively nothing to subdue protests which have remained consistent since November, and peaked the week before last when up to half a million Serbian flocked to the streets of Belgrade.
Pressure also grows for an independent investigation into allegations of the use of a sound cannon against protesters. A video from the Guardian shows protesters who had been observing fifteen minutes of silence for those killed, suddenly dispersing, allegedly in response to a piercing noise targeted against them, a claim which the interior minister and the president deny. A petition calling for an investigation into the attack on freedom of demonstration addressed to the UN special rapporteur has garnered almost 600,000 signatures and counting.
This comes in the wake of a warning from a group of editors of the United Media group in Serbia, who claim press freedom is facing a "dangerous turning point." They describe attacks on journalists in the country, which they claim stem from their treatment by the state, inciting violence against them by falsely portraying independent reporters as foreign agents intent on undermining the country. Last year, Serbia reached a record low world press freedom index score of 54.5, down 14 points in the last five years, now behind Qatar. (Some scores for reference: Norway: 91.9, Ireland: 85.6, UK: 77.5, US: 66.6, Türkiye: 31.6, Russia: 29.9, Afghanistan: 19.1)

In Türkiye on Sunday, Islamist president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had 107 politicians, businesspeople, and journalists arrested in a move described as the beginning of a Turkish dictatorship and the death of the secular Turkish republic, founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1928. The most notable and damning arrest is that of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and the only candidate with sufficiently widespread support to challenge Erdoğan at the ballot box. Though a presidential election is not required until 2028, limited to two terms, Erdoğan would be unable to run again if he waited until then, though this is what he claims he will do. If given the approval of the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye, in which his party and allies have a majority, then his incomplete previous term is not counted towards the limit of two. How convenient! As a result, a presidential election is expected in Türkiye before the end of his term.
Before his arrest, İmamoğlu had his university diploma revoked, a requirement for the presidency. Perhaps bolstered by global democratic backsliding, especially in the US, the president was clearly not content with just this formality, and İmamoğlu has been indicted and jailed on wide-ranging and baseless corruption charges, with charges relating to aiding terrorist Kurdish groups in Türkiye likely to follow.
Just last year İmamoğlu, a member of the secular Kemalist People's Republican Party (CHP), the oldest political party in Türkiye, won the mayoralty of Istanbul, and has done so in two fiercely contested elections prior to that. The 2024 local elections spooked the president, with İmamoğlu winning in regions of Istanbul seen as strongly Islamic and formerly as safe for Erdoğan's party, and saw a 16 percentage point swing to the CHP from the AKP. Not since before Erdoğan emerged as the dominant force in Türkiye's politics over twenty years ago has the CHP beaten the AKP, which Erdoğan founded, like it did just less than a year ago. İmamoğlu was and still is tipped to win the presidential primary for his party, despite his ineligibility. Since the controversial 2017 reforms pushed through by the AKP, and a dubious referendum, Türkiye no longer has a prime minister, and executive power is concentrated around the president who has extensive powers. Erdoğan will know, the more you grant the position you hold power, the more you can't afford to let the opposition win.

And in Hungary this week, the government passed a law forbidding Pride demonstrations, in a move condemned by LGBT organisations, sparking protests over the ban. In the past few years, the pro-Russian Orbán government has upped its targeting of gay and transgender people, no longer recognising the latter, and outlawing material 'promoting' homosexuality to under-18s. The vague 2021 law, which was declared incompatible with the European Court of Human Rights, effectively banned daytime televisual LGBT representation, and forbade companies promoting LGBT causes. It has seen an increase in homophobic attacks in Hungary and was widely condemned by EU leaders and human rights groups and there is an ongoing case against it at the European Court of Justice.