The US primaries for the November midterms got started with a bang last Tuesday, with primaries for both Democrats and Republicans held in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.
The big news is from the Texas senate race, which I detail later, though there was smaller but significant news from North Carolina too. (Arkansas is a one-party state – nothing exciting there.) Though the state has a Democratic governor, Josh Stein, who succeeded popular Democrat Roy Cooper, Republicans have a supermajority (of three-fifths) in the state senate and one seat short of a supermajority in the state house. As it happens, three Democratic members of the house have been taking turns to override Stein’s veto of bills passed by the legislature. All three lost their primaries to younger more progressive candidates, all of whom will win comfortably in North Carolina’s Democrat-packed gerrymanders. But this is just one state legislature. What’s the federal picture?
At least, when it comes to the senate, every two years, a third of senate seats are up for grabs. With one special election this year, that makes 35 races across 35 states. The four big election forecasters (the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Race to the White House) all expect Democrats to win comfortably in Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico (certain D win with no Republican candidate on the ballot), Oregon, Rhode Island, and Virginia, and Republicans in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Only Race to the White House forgoes a ‘safe R’ rating for Kansas and South Carolina, which I would put firmly in the Republican camp. (Kansas has a Democratic governor but she is term-limited and Democrats would struggle even if they did have her coattails to help down-ballot – Kansas has not had a Democratic senator since 1939. Nebraska’s ‘lean R’ rating and South Carolina’s ‘likely R’ rating by Race to the White House are nonsensical.) That makes 43 D – 44 R. So, we have thirteen races to consider, of which Democrats need to win eight to take a majority. I list them here in roughly decreasing likelihood of a Democratic win.

Minnesota (DFL - open):
(According to each forecast: likely DFL, likely DFL, likely DFL, likely DFL)
Minnesota is blue in normal times, so following the disastrous deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to the state, which resulted in the murder by these agents of two US citizens who posed no threat to officers, the state would appear to be pretty safe for the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labour party, despite the retirement of Tina Smith, the incumbent. The state’s last Republican senator was elected in 2002, in the most recent gain by the incumbent President’s party of any senate seat, when the DFL candidate was killed in a plane crash just 11 days before the election. His replacement, Walter Mondale, who lost by 2 percentage points, had carried just this his home state in the 1984 presidential election won by Reagan in a landslide, making Minnesota the only state to have voted Democratic in every presidential election since then or earlier (1976). The state is set to get two new senators as Smith’s senior Minnesotan colleague, Amy Klobuchar, will run for governor to replace retiring Tim Walz, and will almost certainly win. (As governor, she will then appoint her replacement.)
New Hampshire (D - open):
(lean D, tilt D, lean D, lean D)
The Republicans’ last New Hampshire senator, Kelly Ayotte, won a full sixteen years ago 2010, though Republicans, including Ayotte herself, have since won statewide. Though Democrats have won New Hampshire in the presidential elections since 2004, wins for Hilary Clinton and Kamala Harris were by just 0.5% and 2.8% respectively, and Republicans hold the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature. The race looks set to pit Chris Pappas, the Democratic representative from NH-01, against former senator John Sununu, who lost his seat in 2008. With only two districts in the state, Pappas has statewide name recognition to match Sununu, the strongest candidate the Republicans could field. His brother, Chris, and father, also John, were both governors; the Sununu dynast has a very good chance, though finds himself 3 to 5 points down in the hypothetical Sununu-Pappas matchups.
North Carolina (R - open):
(tossup, tossup, tossup, lean D)
The most likely of the Democratic pick-ups and one they absolutely must take, North Carolina has an open seat following the retirement of Thom Tillis. Of late, Tillis is one of the very few Republican senators willing to criticise the administration, though, unlike libertarian Rand Paul, he mostly falls short of lambasting King Donald himself, aiming at underlings, like the this-week-fired former DHS secretary, Kristi Noem. Never Trumpish enough but almost always in line, the senator has upped his opposition significantly announcing his retirement and taken from the president his ability to back a primary opponent from the right. The Democrats have their dream candidate in Roy Cooper, two-term former governor, who won in 2016 and 2020, outperforming Trump by 4 and 6 percentage points respectively. In 2022, which also saw a midterm senate primary in the state, turnout was up 33% in the Democratic primary and 18% down on the Republican side, with four Democrats for every three Republicans, rallying around Cooper to give him 92% of the vote. The GOP’s candidate, Michael Whatley, has the full backing of the party establishment, having been chair of the Republican National Committee as recently as last year. But he is boring and unknown. Cooper is not. And the Republican’s wins for president and senate have all been close of the last decade or so. The forecasts calling the race a tossup are hedging their bets – it is Cooper’s race to win.
Georgia (D - Ossoff):
(tossup, tossup, lean D, lean D)
Jon Ossoff faces quite the fight to keep his senate seat and return to congress for a second term, in purple Georgia. Even though Republicans failed to recruit their ideal candidate, Governor Brian Kemp, Ossoff will rake in millions of dollars in donations in his bid to keep his seat and avoid the narrow loss that faced Harris in the state in 2024. Ossoff’s previous success was helped in part by the simultaneous special election of the state’s other senator Raphael Warnock, who is seen as having galvanised turnout among Georgia’s large Democratic leaning Black population. Democrats will be hoping for a similar effect this year, with the state’s gubernatorial election. Only one of the six declared candidates is not Black, and he is a former Republican Lieutenant Governor. That is, he stands no chance. Ossoff is expected to face either representatives Buddy Carter or Mike Collins, or football coach Derek Dooley. Collins has the best numbers so far, but polls have over 40% of voters undecided, and Dooley has managed to attract Kemp’s endorsement. Barring the early name recognition (Collins’ father was a representative too and ran for the Republican nomination in 2004 and lost), really, none has any distinct advantage against Ossoff. It’s likely to be a close race, but with current polling favouring Democrats and strongly disfavouring the president, Ossoff is in the lead.
Michigan (D - open):
(tossup, tossup, tossup, tilt D)
Gary Peters, having served two terms, is retiring, so Democrats are faced with another open seat in this critical year. Without the benefits of incumbency, Peters may well have lost to strong Republican candidate John James in 2020, over whom he eked out a margin of just 1.7%. But James, who overperformed Trump that year, is running this year for governor instead. The Democrats once again evade the worst case! Instead, the Republican candidate will almost certainly be Mike Rogers, a former representative with the name recognition afforded by his even narrower loss by 0.3% to Elissa Slotkin in the 2024 senate race. After all, he has Trump’s endorsement, so who can stand against him? The Democratic side is far more competitive with a three-way race emerged between representative Haley Stevens, state senator Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Director of Health and Human Services Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed is the most progressive of the bunch, while Stevens takes the establishment candidate role. Does this open a gap for McMorrow, who went viral last year for a fiery speech to the state senate, to walk the middle line? Perhaps. The most recent polling has McMorrow overtaking Stevens, despite the latter’s initial advantage, though a significant proportion are as yet undecided as expected.

Maine (R - Collins):
(tossup, tilt R, tossup, tossup)
Maine is an anomaly. In a time of increasing political polarisation, Collins is the only GOP senator from a blue state. A prime target then. But she is entrenched: a win in 2026 would give her a sixth term, at the end of which, she would be 80, and have served in the role for 36 years. She has an incumbency bonus to match few others, then, having won by 17, 23, and 37 percentage points in each of her second, third, and fourth races. That lead was reduced to the surmountable 9% in 2020, so this year, with Republican support low, Democrats smell blood. And her moderate façade, a necessary shield such a blue state, is fading. Collins is very happy to vote against the GOP party position, yes, but only when her no vote makes no difference. Hers is rarely deciding. This is all the more apparent this congress, with all the stances Trump and his administration demand of their party’s fawning senators, which are so unpopular with Democrats. Still, she has been ‘concerned’ with the Republican position once too often, and Trump has refused to endorse in the race, to the ire of the party machine. Collins will have no difficulty claiming the nomination, but this could hurt her election chances in the general.
She will face either governor Janet Mills or oyster farmer and veteran Graham Platner, who face each other in an intense primary race. It is a classic story. Old guard establishment pick Mills (who would be 85 at the end of her term if elected) vs new blood populist progressive Platner (who would be 48). Platner would be the sure-fire nominee, if not for controversial Reddit posts from between 2013 and 2021, and a tattoo he got while on leave from the marines in Croatia in 2007 of a skull-and-cross-bones similar to the Totenkopf, a symbol of the Nazi SS, whose meaning he claimed not to have known, and which he has since covered. As a result, and perhaps because he does not resemble the typical urban Democrat, he has been maligned as the next John Fetterman. Fetterman is a Democratic senator from Pennsylvania who sometimes votes with Republican positions and makes a lot of noise supporting them. While Platner rejects the progressive label (probably a sensible move in the American political environment), he is outspokenly anti-oligarchy, pro-working class in an emancipatory way (not a MAGA way), pro LGBTQ, pro-Palestine, and pro-Ukraine. He even holds stronger support for gun-control laws than Mills. And perhaps cognizant of the Fetterman comparisons, he went as far as to say the senator should be voted out, for his support of the US/Israel war on Iran. He is fairly significantly up on Mills in the polls and has outraised her 3 to 1. Despite other smaller candidates, because of Maine’s ranked choice voting, the primary will result in a straight fight between these two, and then the winner and Collins. Polling suggests Platner will fare better in the general. The primary is not until June, however, so there’s plenty of room for change!
Ohio (R - Husted):
(lean R, lean R, lean R, tilt D)
Ohio’s will be this year’s only special election. After JD Vance, who was the state’s junior senator, resigned his seat to become vice president, the state’s governor, a Republican, appointed his lieutenant governor, Jon Husted, to the seat. Husted will have to win this election, the soonest senate election after his appointment, to complete the rest of his term, which would ordinarily end in 2028. Being as red as it is, his win would ordinarily be assured. Despite the fact appointed senators fare far worse than incumbents, Husted has no glaring issues, and the benefit of incumbency as reduced as it is. But he faces strong opposition. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, was senator for three terms from 2007 until he was lost 46.5% to 50.1% to Bernie Moreno in 2024. Brown was described as one of the most liberal senators and in 2017, "perhaps the most class-conscious Democrat in Washington,” the latter vital for his re-election hopes. His progressive positions may put off some, but, aligned with the national Democratic strategy, a focus on class and affordability could bring in a strong Trump-soured independent vote. It is an uphill climb, but he is well known and popular among Democrats so should not suppress turn out in a year Democrats are already expected to be galvanised to turn up.
Alaska (R - Sullivan):
(lean R, lean R, lean R, tossup)
The last seat Democrats would need to win to scrape a bare majority is Alaska, and it is yet another red state. Sullivan is a two-term incumbent, and uninteresting. Like many GOP senators, he opposed Trump’s candidacy in 2016, and has since lost his spine, pitifully falling into line. He is opposed by Mary Peltola, representative for Alaska-at-Large from 2022 to 2025, and the first Alaska Native member of the house. Though her initial special election in 2022 was a little wonky due to Alaska’s ranked choice voting, she won comfortably in November that year, losing in a close fought race in 2024. So, she has experience winning statewide. And she is absolutely the candidate for the state: moderate and focused on her state. Her campaign’s slogan is ‘fish, family, freedom’. It’s a tough race, but it should be a good year for the blue team. Her chances are good for a red state!
Texas (R - Cornyn):
(likely R, likely R, likely R, tossup)
Texas’s competitiveness is entirely dependent on which candidate claims the GOP nomination. In the first round of the primary last week, neither not-MAGA-enough incumbent John Cornyn, nor his crazy-MAGA opponent Ken Paxton, Texas’s attorney general, achieved the majority support needed to avoid a runoff. If Cornyn wins, his victory should be all but assured, absent some major development. If Paxton wins, the race could become a true tossup. Paxton is possibly one of the most corrupt politicians the US currently has to offer, and he has stiff competition. He has voted to give contracts to businesses he has invested in, been charged with securities fraud, later dropped in a deal with prosecutors to undertake community service and pay $300 000, and been investigated by the FBI for bribery, until the Department of Justice closed the case in late 2024. I wonder what happened around then? For this bribery and other things, he was impeached by the Texas house on 20 counts for various abuses of his office, in a vote 121-23. The state senate acquitted him. Since then, he has separated from his wife, a state senator, following much publicly reported infidelity on his part, and appears to have committed mortgage fraud. Safe to say, he will not represent the people of Texas. He will represent himself. He is opposed by young state representative James Talarico.
Talarico is white and outspokenly Christian and has the look of a moderate. He too has been compared to Fetterman. (In fairness to the Pennsylvania senator, a serious stroke during his term has, according to staffers close to him, seen his personality significantly altered, and he will almost certainly retire at the end of his term. There’s little he likes less than being stuck in Washington.) Once again, such a comparison is not substantive. He speaks like a Republican, proselytising with ease, but he is absolutely a progressive. Talarico beat representative Jasmine Crockett by six percentage points in the primary, without a strong third candidate to trigger a runoff. Crockett is black and ran on the promise to win Texas by galvanising Texas’s black population to turn out and vote Democratic. Such a strategy might work in Mississippi or Louisiana, but not in Texas. Talarico has a far better chance of claiming the independent voters needed to win, and will not drive Republican turnout like Crockett would, Texas’s answer to New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, in as far as her outspoken ideology (and implicitly her race) is exploited by the Republican party to bring down unrelated Democratic candidates. And she is probably to the right of Talarico! Albeit not by much.
Despite Cornyn’s better than expected showing in the first round (41.9% to Paxton’s 40.7%), he is down in the polling. The GOP party machine will throw millions of dollars at him to beat Paxton. Trump is yet to endorse. The runoff is to be held on the 26th of May.

Iowa (R - open):
(likely R, likely R, likely R, lean R)
An open seat in Iowa? You’d be forgiven for thinking it must be due to Chuck Grassley’s retirement. Nope! Grassley’s eighth term ends on January 3rd 2029, at which point, if he is still around, he will tie for third longest sitting senator and will be 96. Instead, Joni Ernst, Iowa’s junior senator, will step down. Like many Republican senators, she forfeited her spine on the re-election of the Don. In exchange for what? For a lack of primary challenger? That’s moot now. Having been sexually harassed while in the military, Ernst was understandably reticent to the nomination of Pete Hegseth as secretary of defence, a man facing multiple allegations of sexual assault. She was the deciding vote by the armed forces committee to recommend to the senate the nomination. And she caved and voted for the man. Later in 2025, she made the choice remark, in response to a concerned Iowan asking about cuts to Medicaid made by Republican’s in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, “We are all going to die.” In other news, almost no Republican senator is engaging in townhalls, in swing states or red states alike.
The likely Republican nomination, representative Ashley Hinson, carries no baggage that any other GOP nomination doesn’t, inasmuch as Trump support might prove fatal in swing state races. Of course, Iowa is no longer a swing state, but it is only R+6. With strong Democratic candidates in well-known state representatives Josh Turek or Zach Wahls, Hinson could drown in a blue wave.
Nebraska (R - Ricketts):
(safe R, safe R, likely R, lean R)
Nebraska? No chance. Surely. At least not for the Democrats. But veteran and former union leader Dan Osborn, an independent who would be expected to caucus more consistently with the Democrats than the Republicans, is running again. He is not a no-chance perennial candidate, no, he lost to incumbent Deb Fischer by just 6.6 percentage points in 2024, with Trump on the ballot acting against him in a state as red as Nebraska is, and outperformed the Democratic candidate in the concurrent special election by 9.1 points. Will this be how Democrats ‘win’ in red states going forward? If he can eke out a win against centimillionaire Pete Ricketts, he’ll make a very good case for it.
Montana (R - open):
(safe R, likely R, likely R, likely R)
The open race in Montana is a surprise for all except two key players. Steve Daines, the incumbent, pulled an increasingly commonplace ploy, announcing his retirement just minutes before the primary filing deadline, with his appointed successor Kurt Alme, filing in this time. Such a shady nomination strategy will not chime with Republican voters, who are denied their chance to actually influence the nomination. In the current climate, no Democrat could claim their vote, but could an independent? Osborn would like to think so.
No other serious candidate has filed for the GOP nomination, and no candidate on the Democratic side has raised anything near what would be needed to contest such a seat, or inspire confidence that they could. Democrats had been holding out for Jon Tester, a three-term former senator who lost his seat by 7 percentage points in 2024, but he has declined to run. Democrats would be wise to put their backing behind independent former president of the University of Montana Seth Bodnar, who appears to stand the best chance at denying Alme, and whose platform is far more compatible with the blue team than the red.
Florida Special Election (R - Moody):
(safe R, safe R, likely R, lean R)
Florida is red enough of late that any incumbent should be safe, but Ashley Moody is an appointed senator, so does not enjoy the full benefits of incumbency. Her likely opponent is Alexander Vindman, a veteran, and the whistleblower whose testimony first revealed Trump’s attempts to extort Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy into investigating Hunter Biden and led to Trump’s first impeachment. He is polling well enough for the moment but will need a surge in support if he is to win in Florida.

Illinois has an important primary race today, to decide the Democratic candidate who will certainly replace outgoing senator and blue team giant Dick Durbin, but then we have to wait until May for more, when there will be a flurry of results!